•2 min read
Your Spreadsheet Can't Tell a Fact From a Guess
Ops decisions rot when actuals, estimates, and mocks share a cell with no tag. Provenance on every figure beats a prettier dashboard.
Posts tagged with #strategy
← View all posts•3 min read
Why Frontier Models Stay Spiky
Frontier models stay spiky because useful work is contextual and counterfactual paths are ungradable. Post-training quality is a grader problem, not a pretraining-size problem.
•4 min read
Can You Fire the Generalist?
The durable firm asset is not the model or the harness. It is the hill-climbing loop that turns a rented generalist into a company veteran you can keep.
•4 min read
When the Model Is Free, the Hard Part Gets Harder
MIT-licensed frontier-scale models make the cloud API tax optional. APIs already commoditized access to AI; open weights commoditize the price. Advantage...
•4 min read
The Sovereign Tier: Why Cheap AGI Will Not Save Your Margins
AI is splitting into a commodity tier for routing and a sovereign tier for synthesis. Architect for infinite cheap frontier access and your margins are exposed.
•4 min read
The Durable Moat in Agent Control Planes
As models improve, a growing share of enterprise value may move to the systems that let agents act safely, observably, and repeatably in real environments.
•7 min read
Your AI Team Should Be a Shadow Company
The first serious enterprise AI team should prototype a lower-cost version of one workflow, not decorate old org charts with tools.
•4 min read
The Cage Is the Point: When Algorithmic Management Becomes Political
Enterprise AI doesn't just shift the performance curve. In bad-faith hands, it becomes a control mechanism that punishes top performers for using judgment.
•3 min read
The Model Is Not the Moat. The Improvement Loop Is.
MiniMax hit GPT-5 performance at 10B active params via 100 autonomous optimization rounds. Xiaomi priced at $1/M via hardware integration. The benchmark race is the wrong race.
•4 min read
The Foundation Model Moat Is Getting Squeezed from Three Directions
Open weights, world models, and state-level regulation are hitting the model layer simultaneously. The durable value has moved to orchestration.
•3 min read
The Moat Is Scar Tissue
Meta reportedly delayed Avocado. Apple pushed Siri. Neither has a compute problem. Frontier AI capability is organizational, not computational, and it doesn't transfer from a hiring spree.